Forecasted climate changes and their influence on cities and regions in 2050 in terms of extreme hydrological events

Julia Kurek,

Justyna Martyniuk-Pęczek

Abstrakt

Kwestia zmian klimatycznych jest tematem, wokół którego narastają liczne teorie i niepewności, w szczególności odnośnie spekulowanego wpływu antropogenicznego. Niezależnie od tego, co jest ich główną przyczyną, niektóre z prognozowanych zmian można już zaobserwować współcześnie. Pomimo że skutki zmian klimatycznych można obserwować na wielu polach, w tym artykule nacisk położony jest na ekstremalne hydrologiczne zjawiska klimatyczne, których narastanie można zaobserwować już w chwili obecnej. Miasta, zarówno obecnie, jak i w przyszłości, będą się musiały z tego typu problemami zmierzyć. Celem tego artykułu jest wskazanie głównych podejść zarówno do kwestii zmian klimatycznych, jak i działań podejmowanych przez miasta w związku ze zmieniającym się klimatem i zagrożeniami hydrologicznymi. Słowa kluczowe: 

Global climate change is a problem which arises numerous theories and uncertainties, especially in terms of speculated human impact. Independent from the fact, what is the main driver for the changes, some of the climate shifts are visible already nowadays. Both contemporary and future cities will have to face such problems. Although climate change may cause numerous effects on different fields, a special stress in this article is laid on hydrological events – which are possible to observe even in these days. The purpose of this article is to indicate the main approaches both to the issue of climate change and activities undertaken by cities in relation to hydrological threats.

Słowa kluczowe: zmiany klimatyczne, ekstremalne zjawiska pogodowe , climate change, extreme weather events
References

[1] Field, C.B., Barros V.R., Dokken D.J., Mach K.J., Mastrandrea M.D., Bilir T.E., Chatterjee M., Ebi K.L., Estrada Y.O., Genova R.C., Girma B., Kissel E.S., Levy A.N., S. MacCracken, Mastrandrea P.R., White L.L., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summaries, Frequently Asked Questions, and Cross-Chapter Boxes. A Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland 2014.

[2] Hallegatte S., Green C., Nicholls R.J. & Corfee-Morlot J., Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, 2013, Map: McDonnell T. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/08/20/these-20-cities-have-the-most-to-lose-from-rising-sea-levels/?utm_term=.51ed36abce55 (online: ????).

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. IPCC Third Assessment Report. Cambridge Univ. Press, 881 pp. www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/ (online: ????).

[4] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change, Synthesis Report Summary for Policy-Makers IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland 2014.

[5] International Institute for Environment and Development. “Climate change: study maps those at greatest risk from cyclones and rising seas”,  March 28, 2007,  http://www.iied.org/climate-change-study-maps-those-greatest-risk-cyclones-rising-seas (online: ????).

 

[6] Luo T., Young R., Reig P., Aqueduct Projected Water Stress Country Rankings, World Resource Institute, 2015.

[7] Lindzen R., Global warming and the irrelevance of science, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2016.

[8] Lindzen R., Choi Y.-S., On the Observational Determination of Climate Sensitivity and Its Implications, The Korean Meteorological Society and Springer 2011.

[9] Schmidt G. A., Arndt D., Annual Global Analysis of temperatures for 2016, NOAA/NASA, January 2017.

 

[10] Xiaoxu Wu, Yongmei Lu, Sen Zhou, Lifan Chen, Bing Xu, Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation, Environment International 86, 2016.

 [11]Richard Lindzen R., MIT, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwqIy8Ikv-c (online: 4.12.2017).

[12] http://www.100resilientcities.org(online: 4.12.2017).

[13]www.a2rinitiative.org (online: 4.12.2017).

[14] http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/08/150812-shade-balls-los-angeles-California-drought-water-environment (online: 4.12.2017).

[15] http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26810559 (online: 4.12.2017).

[16] https://www.munichre.com/us/property-casualty/home/index.html(online: 4.12.2017).

[17] https://ppntestblog.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/page-58-59-smp-types_pwd1.jpg (online: 2.10.2018).

[18] https://www.pwdplanreview.org/manual/chapter-4/4.1-bioinfiltration-bioretention (online: 2.10.2018).

[19] https://www.baca.uk.com/amphibious-house.html (online: 2.10.2018).

[20] https://www.dezeen.com/2014/10/15/baca-architects-amphibious-house-floating-floodwater(online: 2.10.2018).

 [21] http://time.com/3998554/shade-balls-graphic (online: 2.10.2018).

[22] http://www.raumzeit.org/NewFiles/parkdeck_deggendorf_01.html(online: 2.10.2018).

[23] Vejle’s Reslirnt Strategy: http://100resilientcities.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Vejles_resilience_strategy_webquality_160317.pdf(online: 2.10.2018).