Długoterminowa stopa procentowa jako wyznacznik konwergencji. Przypadek Polski

Wawrzyniec Michalczyk


The aim of the article is to present the characteristics of the long-term interest rate as one of the determinants of convergence as well as to use it in order to assess the convergence of Polish economy
in relation to the euro area. As research methods, an analysis of literature and an analysis of statistical data were utilised. The research period starts in May 2004 and ends in December 2013. The long-term interest rate seems to be one of the most important measures of the economies’ convergence. The main reason is that its level is influenced not only by market conditions but also by determinants having their origin in the quality of economic policy (inflation target, authorities’ credibility, the situation in the public finance, etc.). Despite the relatively high value of the long-term interest rate in Poland in the analysed period compared to other European Union member states outside the euro area, one can observe a long-term downward trend in the difference between its level in Poland and the monetary union’s average. This phenomenon may indicate a gradual deepening of the convergence and increasing readiness of Polish economy to adopt the euro.

Słowa kluczowe: long-term interest rate, convergence, euro, Polish economy