Wpływ COVID-19 na nastawienie i credit ratingi krajów

Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska


Covid-19 Impact on Countires’ Outlooks and Credit Ratings

The aim of the study is to examine the impact of the financial crisis caused by COVID-19 on chang­es in outlooks and credit ratings of major rating agencies. The research hypothesis was as follows: the financial crisis caused by COVID-19 negatively affected the change in outlooks and credit ratings of countries. The study used long-term and short-term credit ratings and outlooks collected from the Thomson Reuters / Refinitiv database regarding liabilities expressed in foreign currency and macroeconomic data from the International Monetary Fund databases, for 2010–2021. The analysis was carried out using ordered logit panel models. The presented results showed a weak significant im­pact of the COVID-19 pandemic on credit rating. The agency that changed its notes in connection with this situation is Standard & Poor’s (S&P). However, the attitude responded to the situation un­der investigation. During the crisis, country ratings have become less sensitive to growing debt, which may be dictated by widespread loosening of fiscal policy. The rate of GDP growth has a par­ticular impact during the COVID-19 period in the event of a change of outlook. Rising inflation is particularly dangerous in the age of pandemics. It may be related to monetary policy easing.

Słowa kluczowe: COVID-19, credit rating, outlook

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